Smallpox

[Seth928]

I just watched the FX movie Smallpox and I must say it was very disturbing. I think that everybody should make the effort to see this movie it really drives home the impact the Smallpox virus could make on our world. Its one thing to tell us its another thing to see it played out. The movie is documentary style as if an outbreak occured in 2002. Anyone else see it? Comments?

[USViking]

I did not see the movie; the only
surviving smallpox viruses are in
guarded labs in the US and Russia;
how do the terrorists get ahold
of it in the movie?

Hopefully the US is prepared for an
outbreak, which I think is unlikely to
happen- even the terrorists are not
too stupid to realize that if the disease
goes worldwide their own native
populations will suffer thousands
of times worse than the US.

There was a shortage of vaccine a
couple of years ago. Anyone know
how we stand on this now?

[Seth928]

I did not see the movie; the only
surviving smallpox viruses are in
guarded labs in the US and Russia;
how do the terrorists get ahold
of it in the movie?

Hopefully the US is prepared for an
outbreak, which I think is unlikely to
happen- even the terrorists are not
too stupid to realize that if the disease
goes worldwide their own native
populations will suffer thousands
of times worse than the US.

There was a shortage of vaccine a
couple of years ago. Anyone know
how we stand on this now?

Um they never said how the terrorist got the virus (interestingly they made him of Judeo-Christian background). From what I know we won't have enough vaccines for the entire population untill 2006 I think. Actually the movie brought up an issue I never thought of. With Africa's AIDS epidemic Smallpox would tear through that continent like wild fire. I am more intested in our governments contingency plan or if we have one to deal with a smallpox outbreak.

[USViking]

Um they never said how the terrorist got the virus (interestingly they made him of Judeo-Christian background). From what I know we won't have enough vaccines for the entire population untill 2006 I think. Actually the movie brought up an issue I never thought of. With Africa's AIDS epidemic Smallpox would tear through that continent like wild fire. I am more intested in our governments contingency plan or if we have one to deal with a smallpox outbreak.

From what I recall reading when
the topic was hot a few years
ago, it is not known to this day
how long the vaccination confers
immunity, but it is thought to be
many years, even decades.

So if we have enough for the entire
population until 2006 we should be
in decent shape.

It would be smartest, though, to
have enough doses for everyone
the world, and to keep manufacturing
as many as needed to keep apace of
the world population.

[bowerbird]

The smallpox vaccine was elementary - it was one of the few live virus vaccines as it was cowpox. Nowdays we have a lot more in our armoury to combat virus outbreaks such as this. But in Africa TB is already wrecking the havoc on the AIDS population and TB is becoming more and more resistant - I am more worried about THAT than a scenario such as smallpox.

[USViking]

The smallpox vaccine was elementary - it was one of the few live virus vaccines as it was cowpox. Nowdays we have a lot more in our armoury to combat virus outbreaks such as this. But in Africa TB is already wrecking the havoc on the AIDS population and TB is becoming more and more resistant - I am more worried about THAT than a scenario such as smallpox.

Tales of resistant TB have been
circulating in the news for at least
20 years, without any epidemics
that I have heard of, so I tend not
to worry much about it either.

There is not going to be any help
for AIDS unless behavior changes,
which will not help those now infected,
or unless a cure is found.

[bowerbird]

How sad. That your heart cannot or will not weep for those less fortunate.

Resistant TB is here and it is endemic in certain regions - sorry but I have to pause to give you a couple of definitions

Epidemic

affecting or tending to affect an atypically large number of individuals within a population, community, or region at the same time http://www2.merriam-webster.com/cgi-bin/mwmednlm?book=Medical&va=epidemic+

Endemic

Present or usually prevalent in a population or geographical area at all times, said of a disease or agent.

http://medical-dictionary.com/dictionaryresults.php

It is here and only wide scale immunisation has stopped it from sweeping the world - that and the fact that its variable development rate.

Once infection is established, clinical tuberculosis (TB) may develop within months or may not occur for years or even decades.

A bit more about TB from the same source

Case rates vary by country, age, race, sex, and socioeconomic status. In the USA, 21,337 cases were reported in 1996 for an incidence of 8/100,000. Although TB has been almost eliminated in some segments of the population, it is still prevalent in others, such as in persons > 70 yr old, in whom the disease occurs in both sexes and all races with an incidence as high as 200/100,000. TB is twice as prevalent in blacks as in whites in all age groups .
<snip>
The course of TB varies greatly, depending on many factors, such as size of inoculum (number of inhaled infectious organisms), virulence of the organism, competence of host defense, and presence of other diseases (eg, diabetes, HIV infection) or immunosuppressive therapy. The course generally is more rapid among blacks and American Indians than among whites. Whites more commonly have chronic fibrotic disease without obvious symptoms of a serious illness and therefore may remain undiagnosed for months until all other possibilities have been eliminated. Thus, blacks and American Indians are more infectious but for a shorter time before the diagnosis is made and treatment started. Whites may remain infectious for many months before being diagnosed. Culture or biopsy is often required to establish the diagnosis in whites, while acid-fast bacilli (AFB) are more commonly found in the sputum of blacks and American Indians.
<snip>

With HIV infection, progression to clinical TB is much more common and rapid. Instead of a 5 to 10% attack rate in 1 to 2 yr, the attack rate is 50% within 60 days. If the infecting strain is resistant to available drugs, the result is a 50% death rate within a median time of 60 days.

HIV also reduces both inflammatory reaction and cavitation of pulmonary lesions. As a result, a patient's chest x-ray may be normal, even though AFB are present in sufficient numbers to show on a sputum smear. Recrudescent TB is almost always indicated when such an infection develops while the CD4+ T-lymphocyte count is >= 200/µL. By contrast, the diagnosis is usually infection by M. avium-intracellulare if the CD4+ count is < 50. The latter is noninfectious for others.



http://www.merck.com/mrkshared/mmanual/section13/chapter157/157g.jsp#A013-157-1168

The combination of TB + AIDS is what is decimating Africa. As for chaning behaviour - just what on this earth or the next life are you talking about????