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View Full Version : Anti-War Site Destroys Lancet Report of 650000 dead


GI Joe
10-16-2006, 04:46 PM
Although I disagree with their ideology, I must applaud the owners of the anti-war web site Iraq Body Count for their intellectual honesty (at least in this case), in a detailed and devastating refutation of the ludicrous Lancet article on Iraqi civilian deaths: Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates. (http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php)



Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates
Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty
Summary

A new study has been released by the Lancet medical journal estimating over 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq. The Iraqi mortality estimates published in the Lancet in October 2006 imply, among other things, that:

1. On average, a thousand Iraqis have been violently killed every single day in the first half of 2006, with less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms;
2. Some 800,000 or more Iraqis suffered blast wounds and other serious conflict-related injuries in the past two years, but less than a tenth of them received any kind of hospital treatment;
3. Over 7% of the entire adult male population of Iraq has already been killed in violence, with no less than 10% in the worst affected areas covering most of central Iraq;
4. Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued;
5. The Coalition has killed far more Iraqis in the last year than in earlier years containing the initial massive "Shock and Awe" invasion and the major assaults on Falluja.

If these assertions are true, they further imply:

* incompetence and/or fraud on a truly massive scale by Iraqi officials in hospitals and ministries, on a local, regional and national level, perfectly coordinated from the moment the occupation began;
* bizarre and self-destructive behaviour on the part of all but a small minority of 800,000 injured, mostly non-combatant, Iraqis;
* the utter failure of local or external agencies to notice and respond to a decimation of the adult male population in key urban areas;
* an abject failure of the media, Iraqi as well as international, to observe that Coalition-caused events of the scale they reported during the three-week invasion in 2003 have been occurring every month for over a year.

In the light of such extreme and improbable implications, a rational alternative conclusion to be considered is that the authors have drawn conclusions from unrepresentative data. In addition, totals of the magnitude generated by this study are unnecessary to brand the invasion and occupation of Iraq a human and strategic tragedy.

cont full report
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php

Daewoo
10-16-2006, 11:16 PM
While this is interesting, it is easily answered.

The reports methodolpgy amd data have been made public.. they are both impeccable.

92% of households presented death certificates.

Face it, GI, the reprot is most likely correct. The response you link to above does not even begin to touch on the reports methodology or their data. they just point out some thinggs that they find unlikely. Some of the things that they point out as "unlikely" are even easily explainable. With nearly 80% of Iraqs civilian medical infrastructure gone, is it really surprising that a lot of people are going untreated?

92%....that is actually a higher percentage than death polls in the US can claim.

I don't blame IBC for being put off about the results. It pretty much blows their reporitng away since the new study uses a huge sample and generally approved/accepted methodology it renders IBC obsolete.

GI Joe
10-16-2006, 11:17 PM
While this is interesting, it is easily answered.

The reports methodolpgy amd data have been made public.. they are both impeccable.

92% of households presented death certificates.

Face it, GI, the reprot is most likely correct. The response you link to above does not even begin to touch on the reports methodology or their data. they just point out some thinggs that they find unlikely. Some of the things that they point out as "unlikely" are even easily explainable. With nearly 80% of Iraqs civilian medical infrastructure gone, is it really surprising that a lot of people are going untreated?

92%....that is actually a higher percentage than death polls in the US can claim.

I don't blame IBC for being put off about the results. It pretty much blows their reporitng away since the new study uses a huge sample and generally approved/accepted methodology it renders IBC obsolete.



Its not impeccable and this leftist report blows it out of the water (obviously you didnt read this report)